The Delimitation Debate

The delimitation debate is now hotting up. Demanding a freeze on the delimitation exercise for the next three decades, the all-party meeting convened by Tamil Nadu Chief Minister M K Stalin on March 5, resolved to form a joint committee comprising MPs from southern states to create awareness on the adverse impact of delimitation based on population. Southern states fear that redrawing constituencies based on population would diminish their representation compared to more populous states. The idea was originally mooted by Congress and Prime Minister Modi, who is now too eager to implement the scheme, criticised it not very long ago. In October 2023, while addressing a rally during the Telangana Assembly polls, he used the delimitation issue to attack the Congress: “The country is now talking about the next delimitation. It will mean that wherever the population is less, the Lok Sabha seats will come down, and rise where the population is high... The southern states have achieved remarkable progress in population control, but will stand to lose heavily if the Congress’s idea of rights in proportion to population is implemented... South India stands to lose 100 Lok Sabha seats”, said Modi. But his home minister Amit Shah said on more than one occasion that there won’t be any injustice with the southern states after delimitation. But his assurance was more like an electoral rhetoric not to be taken seriously. And people of South India too don’t believe in his vague promise. One point agenda on which regional parties like DMK rely on is how to get more doles and grants from the Centre.

In independent India, delimitation has taken place only four times–1952, 1963, 1973, and 2002. If it takes place at all, the 2026 exercise will be the fifth one. The number game matters in bargaining power, and that is the real bone of contention.

The Election Commission examines changes in the population to redraw constituencies or create new ones. After taking public feedback, the Commission publishes its final report. The last census was done in 1971. In 2021 when the census was scheduled, the Modi government abandoned it because it was at the height of the Covid crisis. And since then the census has been consistently put off, with none scheduled in the foreseeable future. If redrawing constituencies is based on the 1971 census, then there is no question of reduction or increase in number of seats. But the Delimitation Commission may decide otherwise without waiting for the new census report.

The new Parliament House has a capacity of 848 members. The present Lok Sabha strength is 543. Nobody knows when the census will start. If delimitation takes place as per population statistics available with the states, north is certainly going to gain.

As Stalin is facing an election next year, he has some compulsion to make noises against the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led central government and the Centre’s discriminatory treatment. He seems to be emerging as the key anti-BJP voice in the South. Besides delimitation, Stalin has been vocal against the Centre’s pan-India projects, including the three-language formula of the National Education Policy. In truth, Tamil Nadu has almost a century-old history of anti-Hindi

agitations. But Andhra’s Chandrababu Naidu is not with Stalin as he would like to advise his voters, ‘it is better to learn Hindi’. He also sees population growth in states like Bihar and Uttar Pradesh as a positive development.

As elections loom in Tamil Nadu and Kerala, Stalin is trying to become a bigger player on the national stage. The BJP, which originally started as a party of North Indian banias, has long been trying to gain traction in the South, with its hopes now resting mainly on its one key ally–Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister Chandra Babu Naidu.

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Frontier
Vol 57, No. 39, March 23 - 29, 2025